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forecast That blue line is the future traffic prediction for Ahrefs. The blue shaded area is the upper and lower uncertainty level. Put simply, there’s an 80% probability of our forecasted organic traffic being within that range. Even better, this graph took all of two minutes to make using Ahrefs data and open-source scripts I made. In this guide, I’ll show you how to create graphs like these to predict future performance for your website, pages, and even graphs of you vs competitors. Why SEO forecasting is important Keyword-level forecasts First-party vs third-party data SEO forecasting with third-party data: use cases Adjusting script settings & details Advanced SEO forecasting Why SEO forecasting is important The reasons why you’d want to do this vary depending on your situation.
If you work in enterprise SEO, you’ll usually have to make projectionsonce or twice a Special Data year of how much you’ll grow SEO and increase revenue. The company will also set goals for you and your team. If there’s a discrepancy between your estimates and company goals, you can use that to argue for more resources. Say you project an uplift of 15% year over year (YoY) at the current effort and resource levels, but your target is 25%. Your expected impact doesn’t align with expectations. In this case, you can push for a lower target or more resources to meet the company’s goal. Maybe you need additional budget for content to reach the goal, or funding for link building or internal linking. You can use an SEO forecast to argue for resources for projects that matter to you. If you’re at an agency, SEO forecasting can help with sales or predict the future impact for a client.
Most companies want to know when they will be a market leader or beat a particular competitor. Suppose a forecast shows they lag behind their target at current effort levels. In that situation, it’s easy for a salesperson to justify an increased budget for projects, a shift in strategy, or additional hours that will allow them to close the gap or overtake competitors. Adding an SEO forecast to a sales pitch can help elevate your pitch above those of other agencies and justify your requested budget. Keyword-level forecasts A typical formula for keyword level forecasts is: Search volume x average click-through rate (CTR) Unfortunately, that only accounts for the keywords you have entered and is usually focused on one keyword per page, when pages rank and get traffic from many terms.
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